Machida to Challenge Evans for Belt at UFC 98

Despite Rampage`s decision victory of Jardine last weekend, it looks like the Dean of Mean caused enough damage to still delay Jackson`s quest to reclaim the championship on May 23rd.

According to multiple sources, Quinton will require jaw surgery as a result of injuries sustained in his fight with Keith.  Rashad Evans will instead face rising star Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida.

More to come.

Fight Preview: UFC 96

Part of the appeal of creating Puncher`s Chance was to create something on the web that I have been looking for: balanced coverage of boxing and MMA in one place. While there are a number of top tier fight sites (which I will often mention and cite), these tend to focus on one or the other. Even worse, the boxing writer frequently dismisses the value of MMA and vice versa. This can extend beyond the mere sport to include the athletes, commentators, and even fans.

As a fan of both of these disciplines, I see no reason that they cannot coexist. While my first love is boxing, I have come to appreciate MMA and enjoy it immensely. It was the strikers that originally piqued my interest, but I also enjoy wrestling, jiu-jitsu, etc. This will be an ongoing discussion as we weigh pros and cons of each. I merely wanted to set the tone.

One of the aforementioned strikers that I began to closely follow was Chuck Liddell. Through his wars with Randy Couture, Liddell appeared to possess the punching power that I had loved in a young Mike Tyson. His ability to negate the wrestling mastery of Couture with a single punch made the Iceman a thrilling fighter to watch. But as the saying goes, "if you live by the sword, you die by the sword."

I traveled to Las Vegas and UFC 71 to see Chuck take on Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. I had watched Jackson destroy Liddell in Pride, slamming him like a rag doll. But, as I am want to do in matters regarding fighters I follow, I decided to forgo reason. I remember thinking as I walked through the casino that Rampage would win, that this made sense, that this was the smart bet (especially with Chuck favored). Nevertheless, I stood in the arena with my hands on my head dumbfounded when Jackson crushed with Liddell with an Iceman-esque punch in the first round. Much as I felt when Hopkins handily beat Wright or Pacquiao savaged De la Hoya, I vowed not to pick against my instincts.

Since then, Rampage has suffered his own loss, relinquishing the light heavyweight championship title to Forrest Griffin at UFC 86. He followed this with a police chase in his monster truck ending in an arrest. He appears to have gotten back on track recently, including a therapeutic KO of Wanderlai Silva. Silva twice beat Jackson in Pride, adding weight to Rampage`s win despite Silva`s decline. He will look to continue this streak on Saturday night against Keith Jardine.

Like Rampage, Jardine has enjoyed an impressive knockout of the Liddell. This seems all the more important given his brutal knockout at UFC 71 which I witnessed first hand. The Dean of Mean`s unorthodox style has made him a challenge for many opponents. However, he was unable to handle Wanderlai at UFC 84, where he was knocked out in 36 seconds. In his last fight, he won a split decision over Brandon Vera at UFC 89.

The winner of this fight will most likely get a shot at Rashad Evans, another Iceman conqueror, and the belt at 205lbs. Jardine has expressed apprehension at the possibility of facing his training partner Evans. Jackson stated recently that he will try and help Jardine avoid that problem.

I see Rampage continuing his momentum towards retaining his title. Rampage TKO

UFC 96 Light Heavyweight Fight (205lbs)

Here are the latest odds at World Sports Exchange

Quinton Jackson

Nickname: Rampage

Record: 29-7

Age: 30

Height: 6ft 1 in

Reach: 73 in

Here is Jackson`s last fight

Keith Jardine

Nickname: The Dean of Mean

Record: 14-4-1

Age: 33

Height: 6ft 2in

Reach: 76 in

Here is Jardine`s last fight

Post Fight Preview: Juan Diaz vs Juan Manuel Marquez

I was lucky enough to attend these fights in person. What I saw was a rare occurence: an exciting undercard followed by an even better main event.

I hope Floyd was watching too:

"Saturday night is fight night in Bayou City. Houston`s own Juan Diaz brings HBO coverage to town for his challenge of Juan Manuel Marquez for the Ring Lightweight Championship. This is the legitimate championship at 135 pounds, and several alphabet belts will be on the line as well. Nate Campbell vacated the three belts he won from Diaz when he failed to make weight in his recent fight. Marquez (49-4-1) is widely considered to be the best technical boxer in the sport and No.2 overall behind Manny Pacquiao. In his first fight at lightweight, he beat the champ Joel Casamayor soundly, stopping him in the 11th. Juan Diaz (34-1) will be fighting his second fight in a row at home. In his last outing, he won a split decision over tough Michael Katsidis for the IBO belt. Marquez is possibly the most popular fighter today among Mexican fight fans. Many of the reported sold out 15,000 are evidently traveling from across the border. Coupled with his brother Rafael`s classic trilogy with Israel Vasquez at super bantamweight (122), the Marquez`s brothers are occupying the mantle left by recently suspended Antonio Margarito. Despite Marquez`s popularity. Diaz should benefit from the hometown crowd`s energy. Currently a junior of the University of Houston, he has discussed attending law school and eventually running for mayor. At 10 years younger, he should be the aggressor throughout the fight. Expect him to put forth his normal high volume of punches and rely on his youth and energy to try and dictate the action in the late rounds. Marquez`s ring generalship and defensive genius should allow him to neutralize much of Diaz`s physical advantages. His prowess at counter punching should protect him from Diaz`s attempts to turn the fight into a brawl. Given the likelihood of this fight going the distance, the issue of the hometown decision must be raised. Marquez has experienced the sting of a questionable decision, losing to P4P king Pacquiao in a rematch many thought he won. victory. That being said, I expect Marquez to win a close decision in a competitive fight. Also on the card, featherweight champ Chris John makes his American debut against another Houston native, Rocky Juarez. John (42-0-1) travels from Indonesia to defend his title at 126 in a hostile environment. Juarez (28-4) has lost in his previous 4 title shots, so expect him to make the most what will likely be his last chance. "

Post Fight Preview: Roy Jones Jr. vs Joe Calzaghe

As a loyal Roy Jones fan, I was overly optimistic going into his meeting with Joe Calzaghe. I wanted to believe that his losses (by violent knockout) to Tarver and Johnson were an anomoly. Roy said they were a result of dropping weight following his historic win over John Ruiz to claim a heavyweight belt. I wanted to think that his pummeling of a well past his prime Felix Trinidad was a notable victory and a signal that he was back.

And for some reason, I didn`t believe Calzaghe could handle him. I was still unsure as to what had happened when Joe had met B Hop.

Here is a textbook example of how nostalgia can overcome reason and logic:

"Fight Night this Saturday at Madison Square Garden, the "mecca of boxing." Undefeated Joe Calzaghe takes on Roy Jones Jr. for Super Joe`s light heavyweight belt. Unfortunately, this fight comes 10 pounds higher and at least 10 years later than it should have.
Back then, Jones was considered the best pound for pound in the world and had won belts in three divisions, including at heavyweight from John Ruiz. It was this fight and the subsequent weight loss to return to light heavy that Roy has blamed for his upset knockout losses to Antonio Tarver and Glen Johnson. Since then, Jones has retreated out of the spotlight and seemingly recharged his battery. In his recent win over a washed up Tito Trinidad, he exhibited some of his remarkable hand speed and managed to knock Felix down several times. At 39, Jones is well past his prime, and there are lingering questions as to whether he can handled punches at 175 pounds.
Joe Calzaghe has built on his impressive undefeated record with several signature wins. In his dismantling of Jeff "Left Hook" Lacy, he demonstrated his trademark high volume of punches to a new American audience. In his super middleweight unification fight against Mikkel Kessler, he weathered hard shots, namely rights and uppercuts, to claim Kessler`s belts and give the Dane his first loss. More recently, Calzaghe beat Bernard Hopkins for his light heavyweight belt in his first fight in America. Although I thought at the time that Hopkins won the fight, it was close and could have gone either way. Calzaghe is currently recognized as the champion at both super middleweight and light heavyweight as well as the second best pound for pound by Ring Magazine. At 36, he is looking to retire with a big win over future Hall of Famer.
Bernard Hopkins recent schooling of undefeated Kelly Pavlik has shown that you can`t count out these older fighters, especially those as talented as Hopkins and Jones. Hopkins was also able to put Calzaghe down in the first round with a sneaky right hand. Jones is faster and hits harder than Hopkins, even at 39.
Calzaghe`s well known hand speed and punch output could overwhelm Roy. His sheer volume of punches is usually enough to win rounds in most judges eyes, even if those punches do not do much damage. Although only three years younger than Roy, Joe has showed no signs of a decline in his ability.
I expect Joe to be cautious initially, until he feels he is capable of handling Roy`s speed and power. Once he is comfortable, Calzaghe should use his game plan of swarming offense to win rounds. This fight should go the distance, most likely leaving the decision in the hands of the judges. While Calzaghe has managed to avoid defeat with quick hands and a high work rate, he has not fought a fighter of Jones` caliber. Couple that with Jones quickness and expert counter punching, and Calzaghe could find himself on his back again.
I am going against the heavily favored Calzaghe, and predicting a close decision to Jones."

Post Fight Preview: Miguel Cotto vs Antonio Margarito

Here was a fight with huge hype that managed to live up to it. Great battle with action throughout. The recent suspension of Margarito for attempting to fight Shane Mosley with loaded gloves has cast a shadow of this win.

My thougths going into the weekend:

"Big fight this Saturday on HBO. Welterweights Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito meet in Las Vegas to fight for Cotto`s WBA championship. Most boxing fans have been eagerly anticipating this fight, which many consider the best fight that can be made in boxing today. With the "retirement" of Floyd Mayweather Jr, this fight is given the added significance of determining the best fighter at 147 pounds. Many observers have stated that Mayweather ducked both of these fighters, preferring to fight relatively safe bouts against Ricky Hatton and Oscar De la Hoya instead unifying his own division. And as if this was not enough, the historic rivalry between Mexican and Puerto Rican fighters has an opportunity to add another chapter. Undefeated Miguel Cotto (32-0, 26 KOs) of Caguas, Puerto Rico is the premier fighter in the weight class. His head down, no nonsense style coupled with his lack of emotion have earned him a reputation as something of "boxing robot". His punishing power on his hooks and body shots have allowed him to dominate most opponents by sheer force. However in recent fights, particularly against Shane Mosely, he has exhibited improved boxing skill. In particular, he possesses a strong jab that he can utilize to force the action. This will be a key element of his strategyy against Margarito: disrupt Antonios offense with his powerful jab. Look for opening for his powerful body shots on Margarito rangy frame. Antonio Margarito (36-5, 26 KOs) does not share Cotto`s polished record, but several of those loses occurred early in his career after Margarito turned pro at the age of 15. He has risen to prominence with a basic approach: pressure and power. The "Tijuana Tornado" presses the action with his exceptional work rate and punch output. Coupled with this, Margarito has demonstrated knockout power, finishing Kermit Cintron in his most recent fight with a body shot that kept Cintron down and gained Margarito the IBO championship belt. Margarito was able to land these shots because of the granite chin he has displayed throughout his career. He has show the ability to walk through his opponents biggest punches in order to land his own. His plan should be the same for Cotto: presses the action and try to force Miguel to fight at his freakish pace. Weather Cotto`s punches and push Cotto into a brawl. Don`t rush in and negate his height and reach advantage. Margarito has stated in training camp that he was planning to knock Cotto out within four rounds. He has since retracted this statement. Given Cotto`s tendency to lead with this head down and Margarito`s power on his uppercut, there is always the possibility of an upset knockout. However, I do not anticipate this fight ending early unless an unlucky cut stops that action. Margarito has often been a slow starter, though he appears to have solved this problems in recent fights. I see Antonio jumping on Cotto early and trying to set the pace. While he may win early rounds with his output, this could be a flawed strategy down the stretch. Margarito has not fought anyone of Cotto`s talent before and has not been on this big of a world stage. Cotto`s comfort on this high level coupled with the caliber of opponents he has bested will serve him in this match up. I believe that he will use his jab and superior boxing skills to control the fight. This should allow him to land the power shots, especially hooks to win the middle to late rounds. Cotto by decision."

Post Fight Preview: Kelly Pavlik vs Gary Lockett

I didn`t need a crystal ball for this one:

"Kelly Pavlik will have his first defense of the middleweight championship this Saturday. His challenger Gary "the Rocket" Lockett is a heavy underdog, and I do not expect "the Ghost" to have much trouble with him. Pavlik (33-0, 29 KOs) will be fighting in Atlantic City, the site of his victory over then champ Jermain Taylor. The Youngstown native has a strong following, and that night the crowd was heavily in his favor. I expect another pro-Pavlik crowd on the boardwalk Saturday. Lockett (30-1, 21 KOs) is trained by Enzo Calzaghe, widely recognized as the best trainer in boxing last year. This fight will give him and his son, super middleweight and light heavyweight champion Joe Calzaghe, an idea of what to expect from Pavlik. They two champions are expected to meet in a "super" fight in the near future. I do not see Lockett being able to handle Pavlik`s power for too long. Pavlik by KO/stoppage."

Post Fight Preview: Bernard Hopkins vs Joe Calzaghe

For Joe Calzaghe`s first fight in America, he took on future Hall of Famer Bernard Hopkins. Watching it live, I thought Hopkins had won, especially in light of the first round knockdown. In my retrospect, this fit added to the legacy of both fighters. Given that Hopkins would go on to school the undefeated middleweight champ Pavlik and Calzaghe would beat up Roy Jones in way few thought possible in Roy`s prime, we were lucky to have seen these two in the same ring.

Here`s what I thought would happen:

"Big fight tonight on HBO. Two of the top pound for pound fighters today will meet for the light heavyweight championship. Bernard Hopkins is one of the all time greats at Middleweight. Joe Calzaghe is possibly the greatest all time at Super Middleweight. Much has been made of the ageless Bernard Hopkins. While it is not unusual for a fighter to remain in the game into his forties, it is almost unheard of for a fighter his age to be at the top of the sport. He has enlisted a team of trainers and coaches to help him develop a game plan to stop the undefeated Welshman. Hopkins goes into the fight having the edge in defense. His unusual, unique style is unlike any opponent Calzaghe has faced. Hopkins has not had a knockout victory in several years, though early in his career his tendency to finish opponents in the first three rounds gained him the nickname “the Executioner”. Hopkins unorthodox style and use of left hands and straight rights in place of the jab could confuse Calzaghe and get him out of rhythm. Bernard is an excellent counter-puncher and is undefeated against southpaws. A former jailhouse champ in Philadelphia, Hopkins is a master of rough, inside tactics. The crafty Bernard has shown an uncanny ability to neutralize opponents` best weapons. Throughout his career, Hopkins has relished being the underdog and proving his doubters wrong, particularly in his 2001 fight with Trinidad underdog. His resume is far superior to Calzaghe`s in terms of opponents. Joe Calzaghe, the undefeated Pride of Wales, could be the best pound for pound today, behind Mayweather. His “artistic” use of angles and movement makes the southpaw’s style difficult to answer. His legendary productivity often finds him throwing 1000 punches in a fight. While these are often soft or slap punches, his flurries do impress the judges. At the same time, he will mix up these combinations with hard left hands once the opponent has become confused and overwhelmed. He has a tendency to leave his hands low. This coupled with his high punch count leaves plenty of openings for B Hops counter punching. This fight in Vegas will be Joe’s first fight in America. Although it is rumored that 8,000 plus supporters have made the trip, Calzaghe will be out of his comfort zone. He has not fought anyone of Hopkins caliber, and his biggest victories, against Jeff Lacy and Mikkel Kessler, came against fairly one-dimensional, straight forward fighters. If Calzaghe becomes frustrated and moves away from his normal game plan of movement, angles, and superhuman work rate, he could leave himself open to big punches, namely Bernard’s right hand. At the same time, Calzaghe can overwhelm Hopkins with his punch output. Joe can use angles to avoid straight flush rights from Hopkins. If Joe gets ahead early, he could test Hopkins 43 year old legs. Bernard’s tendency to start slow offensively often leaves him in a hole early. As always this is boxing, and anything is possible. With the fight at Planet Hollywood, there has been discussion of the casino’s ties to Golden Boy Promotions, De la Hoya`s company of which Hopkins is the east coast rep. Hopefully, this will not affect any judges’ decisions. I see Joe being too busy to allow Hopkins to win enough rounds to secure a victory. Calzaghe by decision."

Post Fight Preview: Kelly Pavlik vs Jermain Taylor II

I was looking forward to this rematch from the moment Taylor crumpled in the corner in their first meeting.

Here is what I thought would happen:

"Gentleman, For anyone interested, the Kelly Pavlik – Jermain Taylor rematch on Saturday night could be a great fight. Their first fight was one of the best of last year, with Pavlik getting knocked down and almost out in the second round then coming back to knock Taylor out in the seventh. This fight will be replayed tonight on HBO2 and is definitely worth watching. Pavlik was able to survive Taylor’s attempts to put him away while Taylor seemed to punch himself out in the process. At the same time, Pavlik gained the mental edge by taking Taylor`s best shots and surviving. Kelly went on to follow his game plan of backing Taylor up with the double jab and looking for an opening for his right. It is this right hand that has given Pavlik the high knock out percentage that I mentioned in my prediction for their first encounter. As I said then, I have been a Taylor fan since the Olympics, but he has never lived up to what has been expected of him in the ring. He relies on his strength and athleticism and practices bad technique. When pressed, he reverts back to bad habits, such as turning his head away from Kelly’s jabs and opening himself up for the right. Kelly, meanwhile, has shown that he is cool under pressure and is willing and able to whether the storm in order to execute his game plan. Taylor has left his Hall of Fame trainer Emmanuel Steward for his original amateur trainer. While he insists this makes him more comfortable and has focused his training on conditioning, I think this will only reinforce his dangerous flaws. If Taylor is able to keep his head and wind while forcing the pace of the fight with his powerful jab, he could win a decision. When he was knocked out in their first fight, Taylor was winning on all the judges’ cards. However, I see Pavlik`s focus and determination being too much for Taylor. If he continues the strategy that served him the first fight and corrects the mistakes that led to his knock down (sticking out his chin in a showboating gesture), I see Kelly winning by late stoppage or decision."

Post Fight Preview: Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Ricky Hatton

Like most fight fans, I was interested in this fight despite the fact that the outcome seemed certain. This one made me look good:

"As anybody who has watched 24/7 knows, Mayweather has developed some problems with his hands. That being said, Mayweather is a classic boxer, not a knock out artist. His hand speed, footwork, defense, conditioning, and overall superior talent is what has made him arguably the pound for pound champion (although Joe Calzaghe`s recent fight against Mikkel Kessler was a strong arguement for Joe). Ricky Hatton is an entertaining fighter and appears to be a likeable regular guy (based on the HBO series and all other accounts of him that I have read over the years). His most impressive fight in my opinion to date was his TKO victory of Kostya Tszyu. He was able to take Tszyu`s long held belt in front of his home crowd in Australia by swarming him and wearing him down. Tszyu did stand toe to toe with Hatton, constantly stepping forward to battle him. Mayweather will not do this. This fight was also at light welterweight. Hatton has had difficulty in the past at the heavier welterweight at which he will be fighting Mayweather. His decision victory over Collazo at welter was a close call, with many feeling that Collazo had actually won. Recently, Hatton moved back down to light welter to fight Jose Luis Castillo. Hatton caught Castillo with a body shot. Castillo fought Mayweather in the past and came closest in my opinion to beating him, although this was still not close. With all this in mind, Hatton is not the same class of fighter as Mayweather. While his swarming style matches up well historically with a boxing style, I believe that the difference in speed and talent will be too great. If Hatton attempts to swarm Mayweather, he should catch the majority of Floyd`s fast accurate punches. I don`t believe Hatton will be able to inflict the necessary damage to the body that has served him in the past. Mayweather`s ability to stick and move effectively should frustrate and overwhelm Hatton. As with past opponents, this allows Mayweather to eventually land the combinations and successive right hands that impress the judges. As always, this is boxing in Vegas, and Hatton has the "puncher`s chance." Also, I see Hatton`s perceived status as the "good guy" to Mayweather`s "bad guy" influence casual fans to put money on Ricky. I see another decision victory for Mayweather."

Post Fight Preview: Bernard Hopkins vs Winky Wright

For this one, we look back at the Hopkins-Wright match up. Further cementing B-Hop`s legacy, this fight started a trend of the Hopkins being unfairly underestimated. It also showed the beginning decline (and eventual disappearance) of Winky Wright.

Needless to say, I was off on this one:

"That's a tough one to call. Given the superior defense of these fighters, this could be a slow battle with a lot of counterpunching. It's as close to a pick em fight as I can remember.
Hopkins, a former former jailhouse champ, was able to defend his middleweight title for 10 years because he is a crafty defensive fighter that minimized his opponents opportunities. He has moved to light heavyweight easily as he is larger fighter that seems comfortable at the heavier weight. He should have the advantage in punching power, especially in body shots like the one he landed to knock out De La Hoya. However, I do not see Wright getting caught flush too often. Bernard is also in his forties and may have stayed around too long.
Like Hopkins, Wright has been successful because of his superior defense and counter punching. He has possibly the best defense and most difficult style in boxing. If he is able to land his jab in Hopkins face, especially in combinations with his left hook he should give Hopkins plenty of trouble. Wright will be moving up from middleweight and junior middleweight where he has his most experience. He is also apparently more comfortable at light heavy as he is naturally larger. This should mean added power on his jab and hook.
I predict a close fight that will be a defensive chess match between two of the sports best fighters. Both men have proven to be impervious to knock outs and neither has shown much knockout power over their careers.
My pick would be Wright by decision."

Post Fight Preview: Kelly Pavlik vs Jermain Taylor I

We`re breaking some new ground at Puncher`s Chance today. In a revolutionary move that you will surely tell you grandkids about, we are posting some past fight previews. That is PREVIEWS, not REVIEWS. This offers a chance to get acquainted.

So, let`s look back at some past predictions. These have not been edited to protect the author for posterity.

First up: Kelly Pavlik vs Jermain Taylor I

"This could be a great fight. Taylor needs a good showing to silence his critics. I've watched him since college, and he has never lived up to his potential in my opinion. He has fought defensive fighters closely in tight contests, especially Hopkins and Wright. Pavlik will be a far different fight. He will challenge Taylor with hard shots and pressure. He has shown that he is willing to trade punches and Taylor has not demonstrated near as much knockout power as Kelly. Also Taylor tendency to keep his left hand low could expose him to Pavlik's powerful right.
I see Pavlik testing Taylor early and pushing the pace of the fight. Taylor's strength and jab should keep him from being overwhelmed, but Pavlik has a high knock out percentage for a reason.
I predict a split decision that should go to Taylor unless Pavlik is able to knock him down."

Mayweather Returns?

Sounds like Pretty Boy is getting cabin fever. Or tired-of-riding-Segways-with-50-Cent-around-my-Las-Vegas-mansion fever.

It there is any justice, he`ll make the fight with Juan Manuel Marquez. If JMM didn`t deserve the big fight money before, he made a strong case last Saturday.

Let Floyd earn his way to the Hatton-Pacquiao winner.